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APPROVEDReviewed and approved by the Chamgap Editorial Team (2026-07-22). The draft was written by AI, the existence of all 2 cited sources was verified at the original page, and the verdict passed blind grading and adversarial audit. Methodology v0.6.
Verdict No. 1135 · Search date 2026-07-22 · Methodology v0.6

Tibolone,
does it really help with Prevention of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures in older postmenopausal women with osteoporosis?

30-Second Summary
B
Evidence Grade B · 76 · Safety unknown
Tibolone reduces vertebral and nonvertebral fractures, but increased stroke in older women substantially limits net benefit
What the
research shows
Tibolone is rated B because it reduced new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures in postmenopausal women aged 60 to 85 years with osteoporosis. In the 4,538-participant randomized double-blind LIFT trial, the relative hazard was 0.55 for vertebral fracture (95% CI 0.41 to 0.74) and 0.74 for nonvertebral fracture (95% CI 0.58 to 0.93). Both are patient-important fracture endpoints, but the evidence is effectively concentrated in one large Organon-funded trial, and the relative hazard for stroke increased to 2.19, prompting early termination on the safety board's recommendation. The fracture scope is broader than vertebral-only grade-B evidence but lacks the independent replication and safer net-benefit profile supporting grade-A broad-fracture therapy.
What the
ads claim
The phrase 'one menopause medicine protects both symptoms and bones' converts a fracture benefit into a claim of overall health benefit. Fractures fell in older women with osteoporosis, but stroke increased, and age at initiation, previous breast cancer, endometrial symptoms, and thrombotic risk require separate assessment.
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Useful facts when choosing a product

  • LIFT tested tibolone 1.25 mg once daily for fracture prevention, and the same fracture effect cannot automatically be assigned to other doses or to younger women without osteoporosis.
  • Tibolone is a prescription synthetic steroid used after menopause and is not intended for women without established menopause or for anyone who could be pregnant.
  • The increased stroke risk in LIFT must be prioritized in women aged 60 years or older and those with vascular risk factors, and sudden neurologic symptoms require emergency assessment.
  • Previous breast cancer, unexplained vaginal bleeding, endometrial disease, a history of venous thromboembolism, and liver disease require review before prescribing, following local contraindications and warnings.
Gap Measurement · Verdict 1135 · B 76
What advertising claims
What independent, higher-quality research supports
△ GAP
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What the research actually shows

Cummings and colleagues with the LIFT Trial Investigators randomized 4,538 women aged 60 to 85 years who met bone-density criteria to tibolone 1.25 mg or placebo and used annual spinal radiographs to identify new vertebral fractures. Over a median of 34 months, vertebral fractures occurred at 70 versus 126 events, relative hazard 0.55, and nonvertebral fractures at 122 versus 166, relative hazard 0.74. Stroke increased with a relative hazard of 2.19, causing termination in February 2006. A 2016 Cochrane review included 46 trials and 19,976 women but found that most long-term cerebrovascular data came from LIFT, concluding that stroke may increase after age 60 and recurrent breast cancer increases among women with a previous breast cancer diagnosis.

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Why this is classified as B (76)

LIFT demonstrated direct hard-endpoint reductions in 4,538 women, with a relative hazard of 0.55 for new vertebral fracture and 0.74 for nonvertebral fracture. The evidence is concentrated in one Organon-funded pivotal trial, and a stroke relative hazard of 2.19 prompted early termination, limiting long-term net benefit and replication. Its fracture scope is broader than grade-B vertebral-only therapy but remains below independently replicated broad-fracture grade-A evidence, yielding B with 76 points.

Counterpoint. Some postmenopausal women at very high fracture risk who cannot use alternative osteoporosis therapies may have reason to consider combined symptom and bone benefits. Stroke, breast, endometrial, and thrombotic risks must be assessed individually, and the evidence should not be simplified into routine first-line use for older osteoporosis.

Rejudgment record. New verdict — Accepted the direct hard-endpoint reductions in new vertebral fracture, relative hazard 0.55, and nonvertebral fracture, relative hazard 0.74, in the 4,538-participant randomized double-blind LIFT trial, while incorporating reliance on one Organon-funded pivotal trial, increased stroke with a relative hazard of 2.19 and early termination, long-term net-benefit limitations, and corpus alignment with grade-B vertebral-only and grade-A independently supported broad-fracture therapies

Sub-claim grades by effect

This ingredient is marketed for several effects. A single overall grade blends strong and weak claims together, so each effect is graded separately here. The overall grade reflects the strongest disconfirming or core claim.

Effect (sub-claim)GradeBasis
Prevention of new vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women aged 60 to 85 years with osteoporosisBLIFT demonstrated a direct fracture reduction with a relative hazard of 0.55, but evidence rests on one pivotal trial with a major safety limitation.
Prevention of new nonvertebral fractures in the same populationBThe relative hazard of 0.74 was significant, but no separate definitive hip-fracture effect or external large replication is available.
Increased bone mineral density after menopauseCTibolone increases bone mineral density, but it is a surrogate below fracture outcomes; the grade-B verdict rests on direct fracture data.

Cross-check — Codex and Claude

This verdict was drafted by Codex through literature review and source-existence checks, cross-checked through blind grading and adversarial audit, and settled by reapplying the methodology boundary rules. Cases with split grades were resolved through rejudgment.
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Evidence Table

StudyDesignSampleFundingEndpointResultWeight
Study 1International multicenter randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial (LIFT)4,538Organon, the manufacturer of tiboloneNew vertebral fractures on annual radiographs, nonvertebral fractures, and cardiovascular and cancer safetyThe relative hazard was 0.55 for vertebral fracture (95% CI 0.41 to 0.74), 0.74 for nonvertebral fracture (95% CI 0.58 to 0.93), and 2.19 for stroke (95% CI 1.14 to 4.23), prompting trial termination.Pivotal direct fracture-efficacy and major safety evidence
Study 2Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials19,976Public support from the Italian Ministry of Health and the Emilia-Romagna regionMenopausal symptoms, vaginal bleeding, breast and endometrial cancer, thrombotic and cardiovascular events, and deathThe stroke signal after age 60 came predominantly from LIFT, and recurrent breast cancer increased among women with previous breast cancer, OR 1.50 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.85).Supporting long-term safety and generalizability assessment
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Receipt — 2 References

All 2 cited sources were verified for existence at the original page (as of 2026-07-22).

Cummings SR, Ettinger B, Delmas PD, Kenemans P, Stathopoulos V, Verweij P, Mol-Arts M, Kloosterboer L, Mosca L, Christiansen C, Bilezikian J, Kerzberg EM, Johnson S, Zanchetta J, Grobbee DE, Seifert W, Eastell R; LIFT Trial Investigators. The effects of tibolone in older postmenopausal women. N Engl J Med. 2008;359(7):697-708. PMID: 18703472. PMCID: PMC3684062. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa0800743.
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Formoso G, Perrone E, Maltoni S, Balduzzi S, Wilkinson J, Basevi V, Marata AM, Magrini N, D'Amico R, Bassi C, Maestri E. Short-term and long-term effects of tibolone in postmenopausal women. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2016;2016(10):CD008536. PMID: 27733017. PMCID: PMC6458045. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD008536.pub3.
checked
Draft and rewrite: Codex (AI) · Verification: Codex blind grading and adversarial audit · Final adjudication: Claude
Reviewed and approved: Chamgap Editorial Team · Approval date: 2026-07-22 · Corrections: none

Cite this verdict

Tibolone x prevention of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures in older postmenopausal women Evidence Grade B card
[Chamgap] Tibolone x prevention of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures in older postmenopausal women — Evidence Grade B·76. 2 cited sources checked. Source: https://chamgap.com/en/verdicts/joint-bone/tibolone-older-postmenopausal-osteoporosis-new-vertebral-nonvertebral-fracture-prevention/ · CC BY 4.0

CC BY 4.0 — free to use with attribution; do not distort grades, numbers, or verdict meaning.

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Chamgap is an information source. It reports what research has and has not confirmed; it does not tell readers what to take or buy. That decision belongs to readers and, when needed, medical or legal professionals. This verdict reflects literature available up to the search date and may change as new research appears. Nothing here is medical advice.