Convalescent plasma,
does it really help with Reduced 28-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19?
research showsThe grade is F. Publicly funded RECOVERY randomized and analyzed all 11,558 participants by intention to treat. Twenty-eight-day mortality was 24% in both groups, rate ratio 1.00 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.07), so the primary endpoint failed. REMAP-CAP also found a 99.4% probability of futility for organ support-free days in 2,011 randomized critically ill adults.
ads claimThe true compositional fact that plasma contains anti-spike antibodies is joined to an unsupported survival benefit after hospitalization.
Useful facts when choosing a product
- RECOVERY selected plasma with a EUROIMMUN anti-spike IgG signal-to-cutoff ratio of at least 6.0. Two units of about 275 mL each, allowed range 200 to 350 mL, were given at least 12 hours apart and from different donors when possible.
- The presence of measurable antibodies in plasma does not establish reduced mortality.
- RECOVERY randomized 11,558 and included all 11,558 in the primary intention-to-treat analysis.
What the research actually shows
RECOVERY randomized 11,558 people and analyzed all as assigned. Twenty-eight-day mortality was 1,399 of 5,795 versus 1,408 of 5,763, 24% versus 24%, rate ratio 1.00 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.07), P=0.95. Its prespecified design target was at least 90% power at a two-sided P=0.01 to detect a 20% proportional reduction in 28-day mortality. REMAP-CAP randomized 2,011 critically ill adults and found an adjusted odds ratio of 0.97 (95% credible interval 0.83 to 1.15) for organ-support-free days, with 99.4% probability of futility. A collaborative meta-analysis of 33 trials and 16,477 participants found mortality RR 0.97 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.02), with 0% heterogeneity. Cochrane found 28-day mortality RR 0.98 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.03) across 21 randomized trials and 19,021 participants with moderate or severe disease. Verdict 1861 is A with 88 points. In the same era, inpatient COVID-19 setting, and large public platform-trial context, tocilizumab trials consistently favored benefit with 3% heterogeneity, whereas convalescent-plasma trials were consistently null with 0% heterogeneity. The grades differ because the data differ, not because the topics do.
Why this is classified as F (10)
A large public trial and two major syntheses were consistently null for inpatient mortality, and their intervals exclude the 20% proportional reduction RECOVERY was prospectively designed to detect. Independent critical-care futility was also reproduced, yielding F with 10 points.
Counterpoint. Antibody content is real, and evidence for very early outpatient use or selected profoundly immunocompromised people is outside this verdict. A different timing or indication requires a separate assessment.
Rejudgment record. Cross-check applied — Repeated null large independent hard-endpoint trials with confidence intervals excluding clinically meaningful mortality benefit
| Endpoint | H | Hard endpoint - actual events such as death |
| Replication | RX | Repeatedly refuted in the same indication |
| Independence | I2 | Decisive evidence is publicly or non-profit funded |
| Effect size | E0 | Null |
| Precision | C1 | The confidence interval excludes meaningful benefit |
The scoring table and the verdict agree (F).
Sub-claim grades by effect
This ingredient is marketed for several effects. A single overall grade blends strong and weak claims together, so each effect is graded separately here. The overall grade reflects the strongest disconfirming or core claim.
| Effect (sub-claim) | Grade | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Reduced 28-day mortality in hospitalized patients | F | The 11,558-person intention-to-treat result was RR 1.00, with the confidence interval excluding meaningful benefit. |
| More organ support-free days in critically ill patients | F | REMAP-CAP reported a 99.4% probability of futility. |
| Faster discharge among hospitalized patients | F | RECOVERY also found no improvement in discharge by day 28. |
Cross-check — Codex and Claude
Evidence Table
| Study | Design | Sample | Funding | Endpoint | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RECOVERY Collaborative Group 2021 | Large multicenter randomized open-label platform trial with intention-to-treat analysis | 1 | Public funding from UK Research and Innovation, the MRC, and NIHR | All-cause mortality at 28 days | 24% (1,399/5,795) versus 24% (1,408/5,763), RR 1.00 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.07), P=0.95; primary endpoint failed. | Decisive large hard-endpoint refutation |
| REMAP-CAP Investigators 2021 | International multicenter Bayesian adaptive randomized trial | 1,979 | Multisource public and nonprofit funding including the EU, NHMRC, NIHR, CIHR, and Wellcome | Organ support-free days through day 21 | Adjusted OR 0.97 (95% credible interval 0.83 to 1.15), 99.4% probability of futility; primary endpoint null. | Independent repeated refutation |
Receipt — 4 References
All 4 cited sources were verified for existence at the original page (as of 2026-07-24).
Reviewed and approved: Chamgap Editorial Team · Approval date: 2026-07-24 · Corrections: none
Cite this verdict
[Chamgap] Convalescent plasma x reduced mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 — Evidence Grade F·10. 4 cited sources checked. Source: https://chamgap.com/en/verdicts/immunity/covid19-convalescent-plasma-hospital-mortality/ · CC BY 4.0CC BY 4.0 — free to use with attribution; do not distort grades, numbers, or verdict meaning.
What this document does and does not do
Chamgap is an information source. It reports what research has and has not confirmed; it does not tell readers what to take or buy. That decision belongs to readers and, when needed, medical or legal professionals. This verdict reflects literature available up to the search date and may change as new research appears. Nothing here is medical advice.